Has the bitcoin bubble burst?

Is crypto crashing?

The inventory market is down—and so is bitcoin. Since December 2024, bitcoin (BTC) has fallen from over $106,000 to below $78,000 in latest days. (All figures on this article are in U.S. {dollars}.) That’s a 26% drop, most of which has occurred in February and March. The decline is probably going pushed by concern and uncertainty stemming from a global trade war and the ensuing chance of inflation, a recession or each. What does this imply for Canadian buyers? Let’s put this in perspective.

Crypto crash or only a correction?

A 26% worth drop looks like quite a bit to buyers accustomed to inventory market actions, however it’s par for the course in crypto. Whereas a 20% fall in a significant inventory index just like the S&P 500 or the S&P/TSX Composite Index could be thought-about a bear market, 30% is merely a correction in crypto. BTC corrections shake out buyers who can’t afford the volatility of their portfolio. In a full-blown crypto bear market—which has sometimes come round each three to 4 years—bitcoin has traditionally misplaced over 80% from peak to trough. (Learn extra about BTC’s bull and bear market cycles.) 

Regardless of these bear market crashes of over 80%, BTC has risen over 8,400% over the previous eight years, from Mar. 10, 2017, to Mar. 10, 2025. That’s a compounded annualized development price (CAGR) of over 74%. Nevertheless, it could not be prudent to anticipate this excessive a return over the subsequent eight to 10 years, as a result of BTC is extra mature as an asset class and, in consequence, its risk-return profile has been diminished to some extent.

Because the logarithmic chart beneath exhibits, BTC’s positive factors have tempered over the previous 5 years, in comparison with what they was once. All in all, whereas the latest drop within the BTC worth is brutal for buyers, it’s not out of the atypical and, given BTC’s historic worth actions, it’s to be anticipated.

Do you have to be grasping when others are fearful?

Should you’re invested in crypto for the long run, you might be trying on the present worth drop as a shopping for alternative. In investing, it’s finest to be grasping when others are fearful, and fearful when others are grasping, as Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, has mentioned.

This implies shopping for when costs are down and buyers are panic-selling, and promoting when costs and greed are excessive. There’s really a concern and greed index that tracks the heart beat of the crypto market. Proper now, it’s screaming concern. That makes the present market a doable shopping for alternative, for these prepared to abdomen the danger.

The graphic above exhibits the CMC Crypto Worry and Greed Index at 25, bordering on excessive concern (the crimson portion). Usually, intervals of greed or excessive greed are good shopping for alternatives. 

CMC Worry and Greed Index within the latest previous

Because the desk beneath exhibits, this index has persistently indicated concern available in the market through the previous month.